(This article was originally published in The Under Age on 17 September 2014)
With summer looming bushfires will once again become a major worry for many Australians, with early reports indicating the potential for a worse-than-normal fire season ahead.
The recently released Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2014–15 report gives an in-depth insight into the upcoming season, showing a combination of below-average rainfall levels and increasing temperatures.
Dr Richard Thornton, CEO of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, spoke about how these factors affect the potential for bushfires.
“There has been prolonged rainfall deficit over the past three to four years that has led to much dryer conditions in the forests along the East and West coasts of southern Australia,” he said.
Large sections of Eastern and Western Australia have had far below average rainfalls over the past three to four years, and despite good rainfalls in recent weeks these conditions are not expected to improve enough to counter the many dry months any time soon.
“This will lead to a much higher likelihood of bad fires within these forested regions,” explained Dr Thornton.
In other non-forested areas, particularly through central Victoria, New South Wales and into Queensland, grass fires will be the main cause of anxiety.
“Although they do not have the big towering flames seen in forest fires, grass fires are very fast moving and can take people by surprise,” said Dr Thornton.
“They can start a lot easier than the forest fires and they change direction much more rapidly, responding to changes in wind direction. This means that people can be caught out by them more easily.”
As well as the decrease in rainfall, the average recorded temperatures across the south of the country have also been abnormally high, especially in southern Victoria.
The outlook for Victoria this coming season is hopeful however, with an only slightly above-average season expected in the western and northern parts of the state, and an average season expected elsewhere.
The lack of rainfall is expected to continue in many parts of Victoria, and the warm temperatures are due to begin in spring, leading up to the fire season.
Memories of the 2009 Black Saturday fires are still fresh in the minds of Victorians, with discussion about another inferno occurring each summer.
Last year there were large, destructive fires in Tasmania, the Adelaide Hills in South Australia and later in the heavily populated Blue Mountains outside Sydney in New South Wales.
Although not always as large as such infernos as Black Saturday, bushfires still occur every summer across southern Australia, regardless of the conditions.
To prepare for the coming season, residents in at-risk areas can follow a few simple steps to ensure they stand the best chance in the event that a fire does threaten their home.
Victoria’s Country Fire Authority suggests keeping plants and trees in check, storing woodpiles away from the home, clearing any possible kindling such as dry leaves and sticks, and removing flammable objects such as petrol cans or deck chairs.
These steps should be followed on high risk days, and as the Bushfire Outlook report says, there could be a few of those days in these coming months.